healthandhousehold-helpfulvotes-heteroscedastic-missing-monotone

Task gallery / Machine learning / Version 1

Reference solution (oracle): Pass
No-op resistance check: Pass
QA verdict: Not recorded
Aggregate eligibility: Eligible version

The task

We want to predict how many helpful votes a health and household review will earn before it has been live long enough to collect any. In [local evidence] the review history is split into one gzipped JSON lines file per year, each named healthandhouseholdreviews<year.jsonl.gz, so load and concatenate them all; the same folder has a column codebook and a few reference tables you can lean on. Most rows carry the helpful vote…

Excerpt only; not a complete executable task specification. Task ID task_24ae66ce9a0a41c3 · version 1. Selection status: not fully recorded.

Results by model and effort

This exact task version only. Every rate is passes / valid runs with a Wilson 95% interval; n≤2 remains counts only. Macro aggregation does not apply within a single task. Baselines are summarized in the quality gates, not ranked. A passed no-op resistance check means that doing nothing did not solve the task.

Current evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes
Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	3/3 · 100.0% [43.9%, 100.0%] · preliminary	3 / 3	0	GOOD_FAILURE: 0 BAD_FAILURE: 0 GOOD_SUCCESS: 3 BAD_SUCCESS: 0

Legacy evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes

Every recorded run

5 recorded trials, including controls. Diagnostic labels do not replace verifier reward. Labels and quality checks are source declarations, not independently attested here. Internal evidence remains private; a missing public URL is shown explicitly. Records with invalid or absent rewards are not scored.

Run / model	Date / source	Reward / eligibility	Diagnostic class / source	Resources	Evidence
`trial_8bc937bf0f8d4151` nop@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	0 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_9b5db87926a54081` oracle@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_6c8a084e8742464f` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 38,710 Turns: 24 Cost: $2.2367	Not publicly available
`trial_abb3700375bc4813` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 55,308 Turns: 22 Cost: $2.7203	Not publicly available
`trial_4c8b36fd9efe45b9` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 50,046 Turns: 24 Cost: $2.5901	Not publicly available