critical-care-survival-censoring-calibration

Task gallery / Machine learning / Version 1

Reference solution (oracle): Pass
No-op resistance check: Pass
QA verdict: Not recorded
Aggregate eligibility: Eligible version

The task

The mortality risk model for the critical care cohort was signed off last quarter on a concordance the previous owner reported as strong, yet the clinicians who leaned on it to triage patients still under care found its survival estimates drifting away from what actually happened on the wards. You are taking over the pipeline that produced that sign off at /app/analysis.R together with the cohort snapshot it was tra…

Excerpt only; not a complete executable task specification. Task ID task_2cb05e1584b8469b · version 1. Selection status: not fully recorded.

Results by model and effort

This exact task version only. Every rate is passes / valid runs with a Wilson 95% interval; n≤2 remains counts only. Macro aggregation does not apply within a single task. Baselines are summarized in the quality gates, not ranked. A passed no-op resistance check means that doing nothing did not solve the task.

Current evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes
Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	5/5 · 100.0% [56.6%, 100.0%]	5 / 5	0	GOOD_FAILURE: 0 BAD_FAILURE: 0 GOOD_SUCCESS: 5 BAD_SUCCESS: 0

Legacy evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes

Difficulty, with uncertainty

Selected-best difficulty: 0.0% [0.0%, 43.4%]. This is one minus the best measured current-row pass rate among rows with at least five valid runs.

The maximum is selected from the observed rows, so the estimate is optimistic. Its Wilson interval is not adjusted for model selection. “Hard” requires qualifying GOOD_FAILURE evidence; the threshold flag additionally requires the interval and recorded quality gates to meet the documented rule. This is not independent validation. Threshold flag: no.

Every recorded run

7 recorded trials, including controls. Diagnostic labels do not replace verifier reward. Labels and quality checks are source declarations, not independently attested here. Internal evidence remains private; a missing public URL is shown explicitly. Records with invalid or absent rewards are not scored.

Run / model	Date / source	Reward / eligibility	Diagnostic class / source	Resources	Evidence
`trial_be50f50b92d94dec` nop@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	0 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_d593cc62a9074eeb` oracle@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_41b19eb204af4b53` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 22,926 Turns: 22 Cost: $1.4521	Not publicly available
`trial_81c5cefa3b944357` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 27,877 Turns: 30 Cost: $1.8522	Not publicly available
`trial_9fdd0d19cd604e5f` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 24,169 Turns: 20 Cost: $1.4164	Not publicly available
`trial_b731dd56a1dc4e26` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 34,172 Turns: 32 Cost: $2.1835	Not publicly available
`trial_e19b02b832af4156` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 25,222 Turns: 17 Cost: $1.3098	Not publicly available