nvss-conceptdrift-heteroscedastic-monotone-multiout

Task gallery / Machine learning / Version 1

Reference solution (oracle): Pass
No-op resistance check: Pass
QA verdict: Not recorded
Aggregate eligibility: Eligible version

The task

Build a multi-output mortality-rate forecast for a state health department. Compressed yearly shards in /app/data (nvssmortality2010.jsonl.gz through nvssmortality2021.jsonl.gz) describe cells by state, year, age group, and sex. Reference tables include nvsscodebook.csv, nvssagegroups.csv, nvssstatecodes.csv, nvsscausecodes.csv, nvsssexcodes.csv, nvssbyyear.csv, nvssbystate.csv, nvssbycause.csv, nvsstargetdefinition…

Excerpt only; not a complete executable task specification. Task ID task_49910916742b4868 · version 1. Selection status: not fully recorded.

Results by model and effort

This exact task version only. Every rate is passes / valid runs with a Wilson 95% interval; n≤2 remains counts only. Macro aggregation does not apply within a single task. Baselines are summarized in the quality gates, not ranked. A passed no-op resistance check means that doing nothing did not solve the task.

Current evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes
Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	2/2	2 / 2	0	GOOD_FAILURE: 0 BAD_FAILURE: 0 GOOD_SUCCESS: 2 BAD_SUCCESS: 0

Legacy evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes

Every recorded run

4 recorded trials, including controls. Diagnostic labels do not replace verifier reward. Labels and quality checks are source declarations, not independently attested here. Internal evidence remains private; a missing public URL is shown explicitly. Records with invalid or absent rewards are not scored.

Run / model	Date / source	Reward / eligibility	Diagnostic class / source	Resources	Evidence
`trial_0689898699cf4951` nop@@	Oct 12, 2026 console	0 · valid	GOOD_FAILURE frozen-classifier	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_875701e160704f8a` oracle@@	Oct 12, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_bece39f0452a4973` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 12, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 26,513 Turns: 21 Cost: $1.4601	Not publicly available
`trial_df8f35a316124d39` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 12, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 44,844 Turns: 28 Cost: $2.3993	Not publicly available