delay-regression-group-holdout

Task gallery / Machine learning / Version 1

Reference solution (oracle): Pass
No-op resistance check: Pass
QA verdict: Not recorded
Aggregate eligibility: Eligible version

The task

The calendar execution delay model learns from historical labeled observations and predicts unseen outcomes for complete held-out calendar source groups. Training rows contain identifiers, five measured features, and the observed outcome; prediction rows withhold that outcome. The hidden fixtures include shifted group regimes in which combined nonlinear effects matter, so constant, single-feature, and ordinary pairw…

Excerpt only; not a complete executable task specification. Task ID task_4f57e739c00a4f44 · version 1. Selection status: not fully recorded.

Results by model and effort

This exact task version only. Every rate is passes / valid runs with a Wilson 95% interval; n≤2 remains counts only. Macro aggregation does not apply within a single task. Baselines are summarized in the quality gates, not ranked. A passed no-op resistance check means that doing nothing did not solve the task.

Current evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes
Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	3/3 · 100.0% [43.9%, 100.0%] · preliminary	3 / 3	0	GOOD_FAILURE: 0 BAD_FAILURE: 0 GOOD_SUCCESS: 3 BAD_SUCCESS: 0

Legacy evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes

Every recorded run

5 recorded trials, including controls. Diagnostic labels do not replace verifier reward. Labels and quality checks are source declarations, not independently attested here. Internal evidence remains private; a missing public URL is shown explicitly. Records with invalid or absent rewards are not scored.

Run / model	Date / source	Reward / eligibility	Diagnostic class / source	Resources	Evidence
`trial_6defb893b8934f9d` oracle@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_a6f6b863fa2f4787` nop@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	0 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_5ef8bfd611594cb6` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_652c2ce82a2e42de` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_15764001401a4bf7` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 44,931 Turns: 39 Cost: $2.5173	Not publicly available