forest-fires-skewed-regression

Task gallery / Machine learning / Version 1

Reference solution (oracle): Pass
No-op resistance check: Pass
QA verdict: Not recorded
Aggregate eligibility: Eligible version

The task

This is a supervised machine-learning task: train a regression model that predicts graduate earnings for US colleges and generalizes to colleges it never saw during training. The data in [local evidence] covers 5636 colleges from the Department of Education College Scorecard, one row each, with a rowid, a set of numeric and categorical features, and the continuous regression target medianearnings10years, the …

Excerpt only; not a complete executable task specification. Task ID task_54200b8fd93b4b0d · version 1. Selection status: not fully recorded.

Results by model and effort

This exact task version only. Every rate is passes / valid runs with a Wilson 95% interval; n≤2 remains counts only. Macro aggregation does not apply within a single task. Baselines are summarized in the quality gates, not ranked. A passed no-op resistance check means that doing nothing did not solve the task.

Current evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes
Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	3/3 · 100.0% [43.9%, 100.0%] · preliminary	3 / 3	0	GOOD_FAILURE: 0 BAD_FAILURE: 0 GOOD_SUCCESS: 3 BAD_SUCCESS: 0

Legacy evidence

Model / effort	Verifier result [95% Wilson]	Diagnostic labels / valid	HARNESS_ERROR · excluded	Outcome classes

Every recorded run

5 recorded trials, including controls. Diagnostic labels do not replace verifier reward. Labels and quality checks are source declarations, not independently attested here. Internal evidence remains private; a missing public URL is shown explicitly. Records with invalid or absent rewards are not scored.

Run / model	Date / source	Reward / eligibility	Diagnostic class / source	Resources	Evidence
`trial_0b124a97b9d84a26` oracle@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_14748c86b91b4ca3` nop@@	Oct 11, 2026 console	0 · valid	No diagnostic label derived	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_52ef40392616417f` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 26,196 Turns: 17 Cost: $1.4180	Not publicly available
`trial_03a578c7fede4d8f` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: — Turns: — Cost: —	Not publicly available
`trial_6d5f96430e8e44bc` Claude Opus 5 · default (unverified)	Oct 11, 2026 console	1 · valid	GOOD_SUCCESS frozen-classifier	Tokens: 25,515 Turns: 21 Cost: $1.4257	Not publicly available