SyncValsverifier → artifact → classifier → verdict
SyncVals · Trajectory

lending-club-lgd-bias-correction-r

claude-code claude-opus-4-8 ✗ failed GOOD_FAILURE ↑ View task
Solved from the instruction alone, tests/ and solution/ were withheld from the agent's workspace and restored only for grading.
Reward = tests/test.sh exit code (0 → resolved); the classification below is post-hoc and cannot change it.
Classification , post-hoc; cannot change the reward
GOOD_FAILUREHonest miss, the agent ran correctly but couldn't solve it. Expected for a hard task; the task is sound.
SubtypeIncomplete Implementation or Environment Mismatch
EvidenceThe agent correctly identified the bugs in the draft analysis.R: (1) corrected_lgd was using trimmed mean on full data instead of resolved-only mean, (2) bootstrap used 200 reps on wrong dataset instead of 1000 on resolved rows, (3) per-grade/per-purpose used all rows instead of resolved-only. The agent produced a script that addresses all these issues, verified it locally with the public fixture showing correct values (naive=0.677, corrected=0.565, CI=[0.558,0.573], direction=materially_overestimates), confirmed no forbidden functions, checked PNGs were valid (840×540 with visible content), verified deterministic output across runs, and validated that all 42 grade×purpose cells have non-NaN corrected_lgd when n_resolved > 0. The local test output (step 20-27) shows the script produced all required files with correct structure and values. However, the verifier test (shown as attempt 4, completed with reward=0.0) indicates failure when run against the actual grading harness. The complete pytest output is not visible in the transcript summary.
Root causeThe agent produced a solution that appears correct based on the specification and local validation, but failed when executed by the grading harness. This suggests either a subtle implementation bug not apparent from the trajectory (e.g., handling of the hidden fixture, numeric precision in edge cases, or a test environment detail), or an environmental/infrastructure mismatch between local testing and the actual grader run.
RecommendationN/A - task is fine
Trajectory
Tool-by-tool agent trajectory
40 tool calls · 3 tool types · 40 steps
Hi , I want a defensible portfolio Loss Given Default (LGD) read on this Lending Club defaulted-loans workout panel. Source CSV at `/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv`; schema at `/workspace/app/dataset_manifest.json`. A previous draft at `/workspace/analysis.R` runs but its specification is wrong. Audit and finish. ## Entry point `Rscript /workspace/analysis.R` reading `LGD_PATH` and writing to `LGD_OUTPUT_DIR`. Grader runs the script twice (public + hidden). ## Output contract Into `LGD_OUTPUT_DIR`: - **`metrics.json`** , Sections: - `data_summary`: n_total, n_resolved, n_censored, share_resolved. - `naive_lgd`: `{"value": <float>}` (or bare scalar) , mean of `1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default` over **all** rows (the biased baseline). - `corrected_lgd`: `{"value": <float>}` (or bare scalar) , same mean but **restricted to is_resolved == 1**. - `bootstrap_ci`: `{"ci_low": <float>, "ci_high": <float>}` , 95% CI for `corrected_lgd` from a paired bootstrap (B = 1000) over resolved loans only. - `lgd_by_grade`: corrected LGD per grade A-G. - `lgd_by_purpose`: corrected LGD per purpose. - `bias_assessment`: keys `naive_minus_corrected` and `direction` ∈ `"materially_underestimates"`, `"close"`, `"materially_overestimates"`. - **`lgd_panel.csv`** , columns `grade, purpose, n_total, n_resolved, naive_lgd, corrected_lgd` (order not enforced). - **`insights.md`** , short paragraph naming the direction and magnitude. - **`plot_contract.json`** , `{"figures": [{"name": "fig1_lgd_by_grade", "series": [...]}, {"name": "fig2_naive_vs_corrected", "series": [...]}]}`. `figures` must be a JSON **array** of objects; each object must have a `"name"` string key matching the PNG filename (without `.png`) and a non-empty `"series"` list. - Two PNGs ≥ 200 × 150: - `fig1_lgd_by_grade.png` , corrected LGD by grade. - `fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png` , paired bars. ## Specification - **Naive LGD**: `mean(1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default)` over the full dataset. Document this as biased. - **Corrected LGD**: same mean **only over `is_resolved == 1`** rows. - **Bootstrap CI**: 1000 resamples (with replacement) of the resolved rows; record the mean LGD per resample; report 2.5% / 97.5% percentile bounds. Use `set.seed(20260606)` immediately before the bootstrap loop. - **Per grade / per purpose**: use the corrected (resolved-only) population. - **`corrected_lgd` in the panel**: for every `grade × purpose` group that has at least one resolved loan (`n_resolved > 0`), `corrected_lgd` must be the resolved-only mean , **not NaN**. - **Direction** (relative to corrected): - `"materially_underestimates"` if `naive_lgd < corrected_lgd - 0.05`; - `"materially_overestimates"` if `naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05`; - `"close"` otherwise. ## Constraints `analysis.R` must not use: - **Filesystem manipulation**: `file.copy`, `file.rename`, `file.link`, `file.symlink`, `file.append` - **Shell / subprocess dispatch**: `system()`, `system2()`, `shell()`, `pipe()` - **Binary I/O**: `saveRDS()`, `writeBin()`, `as.raw()`, `sink()`, `readRDS()`, `readBin()`, `load()` Preferred write path: `jsonlite::write_json` for `metrics.json`; `readr::write_csv` or `write.csv` for `lgd_panel.csv`; `writeLines`, `cat`, or any text writer for `insights.md`; `ggsave` / `png` for plots.
Let me start by exploring the workspace to understand the current state of the analysis.
bash
ls -la /workspace/app/ /workspace/
output
/workspace/:
total 19
drwxrws---  4 h2tagent h2tagent 4096 Jun  1 08:53 .
drwxr-xr-x 28 root     root     4096 Jun  1 09:33 ..
-rw-rw----  1 h2tagent h2tagent 2821 Jun  1 08:20 analysis.R
drwxrws---  2 h2tagent h2tagent 4096 Jun  1 08:53 app
drwxrws---  2 h2tagent h2tagent 4096 Jun  1 08:53 output

/workspace/app/:
total 424
drwxrws--- 2 h2tagent h2tagent   4096 Jun  1 08:53 .
drwxrws--- 4 h2tagent h2tagent   4096 Jun  1 08:53 ..
-rw-rw---- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   1725 Jun  1 08:20 dataset_manifest.json
-rw-rw---- 1 h2tagent h2tagent 423783 Jun  1 08:20 lgd_workouts_source.csv
bash
cat /workspace/analysis.R
output
#!/usr/bin/env Rscript
# LGD analysis , DRAFT. Audit and finish.
suppressPackageStartupMessages({
  library(readr); library(dplyr); library(tidyr); library(jsonlite); library(ggplot2)
})

LGD_PATH <- Sys.getenv("LGD_PATH", "/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv")
OUT <- Sys.getenv("LGD_OUTPUT_DIR", "/workspace/output")
dir.create(OUT, showWarnings = FALSE, recursive = TRUE)

df <- read_csv(LGD_PATH, show_col_types = FALSE)

# Naive LGD over all rows (this is the biased baseline)
df <- df %>% mutate(observed_lgd = 1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default)
naive_lgd <- mean(df$observed_lgd)

# "corrected" , but the draft uses ALL rows again, just trimming outliers
corrected_lgd <- mean(df$observed_lgd[df$observed_lgd > 0.0 & df$observed_lgd < 1.0])

# bootstrap on the wrong (full) dataset , and only 200 reps
set.seed(20260606)
boot <- replicate(200, mean(sample(df$observed_lgd, replace = TRUE)))
ci_lo <- quantile(boot, 0.025); ci_hi <- quantile(boot, 0.975)

bg <- df %>% group_by(grade) %>% summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")
bp <- df %>% group_by(purpose) %>% summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")

panel <- df %>% group_by(grade, purpose) %>%
  summarise(n_total = n(), n_resolved = sum(is_resolved),
            naive_lgd = mean(observed_lgd),
            corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")
write_csv(panel, file.path(OUT, "lgd_panel.csv"))

bias_diff <- naive_lgd - corrected_lgd
direction <- if (abs(bias_diff) < 0.05) "close" else if (bias_diff > 0) "materially_overestimates" else "materially_underestimates"

metrics <- list(
  data_summary = list(n_total = nrow(df), n_resolved = sum(df$is_resolved),
                     n_censored = nrow(df) - sum(df$is_resolved),
                     share_resolved = mean(df$is_resolved)),
  naive_lgd = list(value = naive_lgd),
  corrected_lgd = list(value = corrected_lgd),
  bootstrap_ci = list(ci_low = unname(ci_lo), ci_high = unname(ci_hi)),
  lgd_by_grade = setNames(as.list(bg$corrected_lgd), bg$grade),
  lgd_by_purpose = setNames(as.list(bp$corrected_lgd), bp$purpose),
  bias_assessment = list(naive_minus_corrected = bias_diff, direction = direction)
)
write_json(metrics, file.path(OUT, "metrics.json"), auto_unbox = TRUE,
           digits = 6, pretty = TRUE)

cat(paste0("Naive LGD: ", round(naive_lgd, 3),
           "\nCorrected: ", round(corrected_lgd, 3),
           "\nDirection: ", direction, "\n"),
    file = file.path(OUT, "insights.md"))
write_json(list(figures = list()), file.path(OUT, "plot_contract.json"),
           auto_unbox = TRUE, pretty = TRUE)
png(file.path(OUT, "fig1_lgd_by_grade.png"), width = 600, height = 400); plot.new(); dev.off()
png(file.path(OUT, "fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png"), width = 600, height = 400); plot.new(); dev.off()
bash
cat /workspace/app/dataset_manifest.json
output
{
  "dataset_name": "Defaulted-loan workout panel for Loss Given Default modelling",
  "source": "Calibrated to Lending Club historical loan-level disclosures of defaulted accounts and their post-default workout ledger (https://www.lendingclub.com/info/statistics.action , historical bulk files).",
  "license": "Synthetic but matches the Lending Club workout schema for grading.",
  "columns": {
    "loan_id": "Anonymous loan identifier.",
    "grade": "Lending Club grade A-G assigned at origination.",
    "purpose": "Borrower-stated loan purpose.",
    "home_ownership": "RENT / OWN / MORTGAGE.",
    "principal_at_default": "Outstanding principal at the moment of default (USD).",
    "default_month": "Months from origination to default.",
    "workout_months_observed": "Months of post-default observation in the panel.",
    "time_to_resolution": "Months from default to terminal resolution (recovery curve flat-lines).",
    "is_resolved": "1 if workout_months_observed >= time_to_resolution; else 0 (right-censored workout).",
    "recovered_amount": "Cumulative dollars recovered as of the as-of date (USD).",
    "annual_inc": "Borrower annual income at origination."
  },
  "definitions": {
    "lgd": "LGD = 1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default , only valid when is_resolved == 1.",
    "censoring": "Rows with is_resolved == 0 are right-censored: their LGD is incompletely observed. Censored rows have partial recovery, so recovered_amount understates the true terminal recovery , a naive mean of recovered/principal is biased downward, and therefore LGD = 1 - recovered/principal is biased upward (naive overestimates true LGD). Restrict to resolved workouts or model the cure mechanism."
  }
}
bash
head -3 /workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv
echo "---"
wc -l /workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv
output
loan_id,grade,purpose,home_ownership,principal_at_default,default_month,workout_months_observed,time_to_resolution,is_resolved,recovered_amount,annual_inc
LC0000000,C,small_business,MORTGAGE,9248.9,12,16,8,1,2351.97,37618.14
LC0000001,A,debt_consolidation,RENT,14442.6,10,25,15,1,7783.99,135186.3
---
6001 /workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv
bash
Rscript -e '
df <- readr::read_csv("/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv", show_col_types=FALSE)
cat("rows:", nrow(df),"\n")
cat("n_resolved:", sum(df$is_resolved), "\n")
cat("share_resolved:", mean(df$is_resolved), "\n")
df$obs_lgd <- 1 - df$recovered_amount / df$principal_at_default
cat("naive (all):", mean(df$obs_lgd), "\n")
cat("corrected (resolved):", mean(df$obs_lgd[df$is_resolved==1]), "\n")
cat("grades:", paste(sort(unique(df$grade)), collapse=","), "\n")
cat("purposes:", paste(sort(unique(df$purpose)), collapse=","), "\n")
'
output
rows: 6000 
n_resolved: 3185 
share_resolved: 0.5308333 
naive (all): 0.677057 
corrected (resolved): 0.5651259 
grades: A,B,C,D,E,F,G 
purposes: credit_card,debt_consolidation,home_improvement,major_purchase,other,small_business
So let me understand now: - naive LGD (all rows) = 0.677 , biased upward (censored rows have incomplete recovery) - corrected LGD (resolved only) = 0.565 - difference is ~0.112 (positive) , so naive > corrected by more than 0.05 → direction is "materially_overestimates" Per the manifest: "naive overestimates true LGD" , makes sense: censored loans will still collect more recoveries over time, so their observed LGD is artificially high. Now let me write the complete corrected analysis.R. Key things: 1. Must not use forbidden functions (filesystem manip, shell, binary I/O) 2. Use `jsonlite::write_json` for metrics.json 3. Use `readr::write_csv` or `write.csv` for CSV 4. Use `writeLines`/`cat` for markdown 5. Use `ggsave`/`png` for plots Let me compose the script. I'll be careful: - `naive_lgd` = mean over ALL rows - `corrected_lgd` = mean over resolved rows only - Bootstrap: B=1000, set.seed(20260606) IMMEDIATELY before the loop - panel: for each grade×purpose group with n_resolved > 0, corrected_lgd must be the resolved-only mean - plot_contract.json: `figures` must be an array of objects with `name` and `series` keys (non-empty series) - PNGs must be ≥ 200×150 Let me also watch out: write_json with `auto_unbox=TRUE` will unbox single-element vectors. I want `figures` to be an array even if the array contains a single object. So I may need to wrap things carefully. Let me construct each field: - data_summary: all scalars → auto_unbox OK - naive_lgd: `{"value": <float>}` , scalar; can be a list with `value = naive_lgd` - corrected_lgd: same - bootstrap_ci: `{"ci_low":..., "ci_high":...}` - lgd_by_grade: named list, each value a scalar → OK - lgd_by_purpose: named list - bias_assessment: `{naive_minus_corrected, direction}` For `plot_contract.json`: ```json { "figures": [ {"name": "fig1_lgd_by_grade", "series": [...]}, {"name": "fig2_naive_vs_corrected", "series": [...]} ] } ``` With auto_unbox = TRUE, a list of length 1 would be unboxed. So I need to keep `figures` as a list, and use `auto_unbox=TRUE` but watch out for single-element cases. Actually figures has 2 elements, so it'll stay a list → array. But each figure's `series` , if series has 1 element, auto_unbox would unbox it. I'll use multiple series per figure, or disable auto_unbox where needed. Let me be more careful: I'll explicitly construct structures. Actually, for the plot_contract.json, I'll use `auto_unbox=TRUE`. Since `figures` has 2 entries, it remains an array. Series is a list of objects with various fields (label, value, etc) , I'll have at least 2 or more entries per series. Even if 1, I can use `I()` or use `toJSON` with different settings. Actually a cleaner approach: use `jsonlite::toJSON` with `auto_unbox=TRUE` but force arrays where needed using `I()` or by adding an unused helper. Let me just keep things simple: Figure 1 , lgd_by_grade: series = one entry per grade, e.g. each is `{label: "A", value: 0.5}` , so 7 entries. Figure 2 , naive_vs_corrected: series = `[{label: "naive", value: ...}, {label: "corrected", value: ...}]` , 2 entries. Both have ≥ 2 series, so auto_unbox won't unbox them. For bootstrap: use set.seed(20260606) right before the sampling. Must use 1000 replicates. Now let me write this properly. One thing to note in the direction: "if `naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05`" → materially_overestimates. In our case, naive=0.677, corrected=0.565, diff=0.112 > 0.05 → materially_overestimates. Also, the panel needs: `grade, purpose, n_total, n_resolved, naive_lgd, corrected_lgd`. The corrected_lgd for groups with n_resolved > 0 must be the resolved-only mean. For n_resolved == 0, it can be NaN. Actually the spec says "for every grade × purpose group that has at least one resolved loan (n_resolved > 0), corrected_lgd must be the resolved-only mean , not NaN." So groups with 0 resolved can be NaN (no requirement). For `naive_lgd` in panel , the field is labeled `naive_lgd`. Probably it's the "all rows" mean for th …[truncated]
Now I understand the data and the bug. The draft: - `corrected_lgd` filters by observed LGD being in (0,1) , not the correct fix (should be resolved-only). - Bootstrap uses 200 reps on the full dataset , should be 1000 reps on resolved rows. - Panel's `corrected_lgd` is the same formula as `naive_lgd`. - `plot_contract.json` has empty figures; PNGs are blank. - Per-grade/per-purpose use all rows, not resolved-only. Let me verify the expected direction:
bash
Rscript -e '
df <- readr::read_csv("/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv", show_col_types=FALSE)
df$obs <- 1 - df$recovered_amount / df$principal_at_default
n <- mean(df$obs); c <- mean(df$obs[df$is_resolved==1])
cat("naive:",round(n,4),"corrected:",round(c,4),"diff:",round(n-c,4),"\n")
'
output
naive: 0.6771 corrected: 0.5651 diff: 0.1119
So naive > corrected + 0.05 → `materially_overestimates`. Now let me write the corrected analysis script.
str_replace_based_edit_tool
command: create
path: /workspace/analysis.R
file_text: #!/usr/bin/env Rscript
# LGD analysis , corrected specification.
#
# Key correction vs. draft:
#   * The naive LGD is mean(1 - recovered/principal) over ALL rows.
#     Censored rows (is_resolved == 0) have incomplete recoveries, so their
#     observed recovery ratio understates the eventual recovery, which
#     inflates the implied LGD. Taking the mean over all rows is therefore
#     biased UPWARD (overestimates LGD).
#   * The corrected LGD restricts the mean to is_resolved == 1 rows where
#     recovery curves have flat-lined and LGD is fully observed.

suppressPackageStartupMessages({
  library(readr)
  library(dplyr)
  library(tidyr)
  library(jsonlite)
  library(ggplot2)
})

LGD_PATH <- Sys.getenv("LGD_PATH", "/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv")
OUT      <- Sys.getenv("LGD_OUTPUT_DIR", "/workspace/output")
dir.create(OUT, showWarnings = FALSE, recursive = TRUE)

df <- read_csv(LGD_PATH, show_col_types = FALSE)

# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Observed LGD on every row (this is the RAW per-row number; mean of it on
# the full dataset is the biased naive baseline).
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
df <- df %>% mutate(observed_lgd = 1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default)

resolved_df <- df %>% filter(is_resolved == 1)

naive_lgd     <- mean(df$observed_lgd)
corrected_lgd <- mean(resolved_df$observed_lgd)

# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Paired bootstrap over resolved loans ONLY , 1000 resamples.
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
resolved_lgd_vec <- resolved_df$observed_lgd
B <- 1000L
set.seed(20260606)
boot_means <- replicate(B, mean(sample(resolved_lgd_vec,
                                       size = length(resolved_lgd_vec),
                                       replace = TRUE)))
ci_low  <- unname(quantile(boot_means, 0.025))
ci_high <- unname(quantile(boot_means, 0.975))

# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Corrected (resolved-only) means per grade and per purpose.
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
by_grade <- resolved_df %>%
  group_by(grade) %>%
  summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop") %>%
  arrange(grade)

by_purpose <- resolved_df %>%
  group_by(purpose) %>%
  summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop") %>%
  arrange(purpose)

# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Grade × purpose panel.
#   naive_lgd     : mean over ALL rows in the cell (baseline, biased).
#   corrected_lgd : mean over resolved rows in the cell. NaN only when
#                   the cell has zero resolved loans (spec allows this).
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
panel_all <- df %>%
  group_by(grade, purpose) %>%
  summarise(n_total    = n(),
            n_resolved = sum(is_resolved),
            naive_lgd  = mean(observed_lgd),
            .groups    = "drop")

panel_res <- resolved_df %>%
  group_by(grade, purpose) %>%
  summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")

panel <- panel_all %>%
  left_join(panel_res, by = c("grade", "purpose")) %>%
  arrange(grade, purpose)

# Guarantee the spec: every cell with n_resolved > 0 has a real number.
stopifnot(all(!is.na(panel$corrected_lgd[panel$n_resolved > 0])))

write_csv(panel, file.path(OUT, "lgd_panel.csv"))

# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Bias assessment.
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
bias_diff <- naive_lgd - corrected_lgd
direction <- if (naive_lgd < corrected_lgd - 0.05) {
  "materially_underestimates"
} else if (naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05) {
  "materially_overestimates"
} else {
  "close"
}

# -----------------
…[truncated]
output
Existing file was successfully overwritten at /workspace/analysis.R
bash
cd /workspace && rm -rf output && LGD_PATH=/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv LGD_OUTPUT_DIR=/workspace/output Rscript /workspace/analysis.R
output
n_total=6000 n_resolved=3185 naive=0.6771 corrected=0.5651 CI=[0.5577,0.5727] dir=materially_overestimates
bash
ls -la /workspace/output/ && echo "---" && cat /workspace/output/metrics.json
output
total 61
drwxr-sr-x 2 h2tagent h2tagent  4096 Jun  1 09:34 .
drwxrws--- 4 h2tagent h2tagent  4096 Jun  1 09:34 ..
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent 24052 Jun  1 09:34 fig1_lgd_by_grade.png
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent 23865 Jun  1 09:34 fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   642 Jun  1 09:34 insights.md
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent  2592 Jun  1 09:34 lgd_panel.csv
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   865 Jun  1 09:34 metrics.json
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   906 Jun  1 09:34 plot_contract.json
---
{
  "data_summary": {
    "n_total": 6000,
    "n_resolved": 3185,
    "n_censored": 2815,
    "share_resolved": 0.53083333333
  },
  "naive_lgd": {
    "value": 0.67705699959
  },
  "corrected_lgd": {
    "value": 0.56512588377
  },
  "bootstrap_ci": {
    "ci_low": 0.55767503447,
    "ci_high": 0.57265928306
  },
  "lgd_by_grade": {
    "A": 0.43529755197,
    "B": 0.49919224858,
    "C": 0.57150846686,
    "D": 0.65262140509,
    "E": 0.71929621853,
    "F": 0.79746681993,
    "G": 0.84954798922
  },
  "lgd_by_purpose": {
    "credit_card": 0.591114101,
    "debt_consolidation": 0.54887666958,
    "home_improvement": 0.54207074076,
    "major_purchase": 0.61012939345,
    "other": 0.54548081207,
    "small_business": 0.6255756025
  },
  "bias_assessment": {
    "naive_minus_corrected": 0.11193111581,
    "direction": "materially_overestimates"
  }
}
bash
cat /workspace/output/plot_contract.json
output
{
  "figures": [
    {
      "name": "fig1_lgd_by_grade",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "A",
          "value": 0.43529755197
        },
        {
          "label": "B",
          "value": 0.49919224858
        },
        {
          "label": "C",
          "value": 0.57150846686
        },
        {
          "label": "D",
          "value": 0.65262140509
        },
        {
          "label": "E",
          "value": 0.71929621853
        },
        {
          "label": "F",
          "value": 0.79746681993
        },
        {
          "label": "G",
          "value": 0.84954798922
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "fig2_naive_vs_corrected",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "naive_all_rows",
          "value": 0.67705699959
        },
        {
          "label": "corrected_resolved",
          "value": 0.56512588377
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}
bash
cat /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv | head -20
echo "---"
echo "Total rows:"
wc -l /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv
echo "--- insights.md ---"
cat /workspace/output/insights.md
output
grade,purpose,n_total,n_resolved,naive_lgd,corrected_lgd
A,credit_card,219,136,0.5607065958509241,0.45012049865070586
A,debt_consolidation,564,297,0.5702761415442725,0.4202599413316665
A,home_improvement,114,64,0.5292722852167128,0.4073998487935503
A,major_purchase,67,35,0.6368190733531681,0.5021729573367807
A,other,90,52,0.5730028339585355,0.4161251086238681
A,small_business,86,44,0.6524850156856171,0.501025517461768
B,credit_card,321,165,0.6650274867660854,0.5529570202359294
B,debt_consolidation,796,431,0.6046227193564916,0.4831736900891306
B,home_improvement,144,72,0.5957294070774534,0.4692244006760461
B,major_purchase,92,47,0.6660533581869653,0.5058966135004026
B,other,147,76,0.6134946055553012,0.4707940973640627
B,small_business,107,62,0.6406465639242245,0.5319930675458743
C,credit_card,278,137,0.6975732212004435,0.5846765821152625
C,debt_consolidation,689,376,0.6700856143560795,0.5627652371775993
C,home_improvement,140,81,0.6725210332547668,0.5523445244469769
C,major_purchase,86,38,0.7189961393361699,0.6135765359011776
C,other,108,55,0.6702128871263167,0.5494833684419389
C,small_business,88,46,0.7149621821285365,0.6290844602873757
D,credit_card,215,115,0.7655060220713419,0.6766756615218997
---
Total rows:
43 /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv
--- insights.md ---
# LGD read , portfolio findings

The naive portfolio LGD, computed as mean(1 - recovered / principal) over **all 6000 defaulted loans**, is **0.677**. Restricting to the **3185 resolved workouts** (where recoveries have flat-lined and LGD is fully observed) gives a corrected portfolio LGD of **0.565** (95% bootstrap CI [0.558, 0.573], B = 1000).

The naive estimator overstates the true LGD by 0.112 in absolute terms (direction = `materially_overestimates`). Censored rows carry partial recoveries, so their implied LGD is artificially high; averaging them in inflates the portfolio LGD. The defensible read is the resolved-only figure.
42 grade × purpose cells (7 grades × 6 purposes), all with at least one resolved loan. Now let me confirm no NaN in `corrected_lgd` and check the PNGs are valid.
bash
Rscript -e '
p <- readr::read_csv("/workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv", show_col_types=FALSE)
cat("cells with n_resolved>0:", sum(p$n_resolved > 0), "\n")
cat("NaN in corrected where n_resolved>0:", sum(is.nan(p$corrected_lgd[p$n_resolved > 0])), "\n")
cat("NA  in corrected where n_resolved>0:", sum(is.na(p$corrected_lgd[p$n_resolved > 0])), "\n")
cat("min n_resolved:", min(p$n_resolved), "\n")
'
echo "--- PNG dims ---"
python3 -c "
from PIL import Image
for f in ['fig1_lgd_by_grade.png','fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png']:
    im = Image.open(f'/workspace/output/{f}')
    print(f, im.size)
"
output
cells with n_resolved>0: 42 
NaN in corrected where n_resolved>0: 0 
NA  in corrected where n_resolved>0: 0 
min n_resolved: 4 
--- PNG dims ---
fig1_lgd_by_grade.png (840, 540)
fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png (840, 540)
All 42 groups have real `corrected_lgd` values; PNGs are 840×540 (≥200×150). Let me also check the forbidden-function constraints and that the script is idempotent when re-run:
bash
grep -nE 'file\.copy|file\.rename|file\.link|file\.symlink|file\.append|\bsystem\(|\bsystem2\(|\bshell\(|\bpipe\(|saveRDS|writeBin|as\.raw|\bsink\(|readRDS|readBin|\bload\(' /workspace/analysis.R || echo "CLEAN: no forbidden APIs"
output
CLEAN: no forbidden APIs
bash
# Simulate the grader running it twice (public then hidden) , deterministic seed means bootstrap CI must be stable.
cd /workspace
rm -rf output
LGD_PATH=/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv LGD_OUTPUT_DIR=/workspace/output Rscript /workspace/analysis.R
md5_1=$(md5sum /workspace/output/metrics.json | awk '{print $1}')
LGD_PATH=/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv LGD_OUTPUT_DIR=/workspace/output Rscript /workspace/analysis.R
md5_2=$(md5sum /workspace/output/metrics.json | awk '{print $1}')
echo "run1 md5: $md5_1"
echo "run2 md5: $md5_2"
[ "$md5_1" = "$md5_2" ] && echo "DETERMINISTIC ✓" || echo "NOT deterministic ✗"
output
n_total=6000 n_resolved=3185 naive=0.6771 corrected=0.5651 CI=[0.5577,0.5727] dir=materially_overestimates
n_total=6000 n_resolved=3185 naive=0.6771 corrected=0.5651 CI=[0.5577,0.5727] dir=materially_overestimates
run1 md5: 264043407aad5f8935f0c32397936b79
run2 md5: 264043407aad5f8935f0c32397936b79
DETERMINISTIC ✓
str_replace_based_edit_tool
command: view
path: /workspace/output/fig1_lgd_by_grade.png
output
<output_image>
…[truncated]
str_replace_based_edit_tool
command: view
path: /workspace/output/fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png
output
<output_image>
…[truncated]
Both PNGs render correctly with the expected monotone-by-grade story and the naive-vs-corrected gap. Final summary of what the corrected script delivers: **Audit of the draft's bugs → fixes:** | Draft bug | Corrected | |---|---| | `corrected_lgd` = trimmed mean on full data | resolved-only mean (`is_resolved == 1`) | | Bootstrap: 200 reps over full dataset | 1000 reps over resolved rows only, `set.seed(20260606)` immediately before the loop | | Per-grade / per-purpose aggregates on full data | Restricted to resolved population | | Panel `corrected_lgd` identical to `naive_lgd` | Left-joined resolved-only group means; verified non-NaN for all 42 cells (all have `n_resolved > 0`) | | `plot_contract.json` had empty `figures: []` | Two figures with non-empty series matching the PNG names | | PNGs were blank `plot.new()` pages | Real ggplot bar charts at 840×540 px | | `insights.md` reported the wrong sign pattern | Correctly states that naive **overstates** LGD by 0.112 | **Portfolio read:** - naive LGD (biased, all 6 000 rows) = 0.677 - corrected LGD (resolved 3 185 rows) = 0.565, 95% bootstrap CI [0.558, 0.573] - `naive_minus_corrected` = +0.112 → `direction = "materially_overestimates"` (matches the manifest: censoring biases recovered downward and LGD upward) - corrected LGD by grade rises monotonically A → G (0.44 → 0.85); by purpose `small_business` and `major_purchase` are worst, `home_improvement`/`other`/`debt_consolidation` the best. - Two consecutive runs produce identical `metrics.json` (deterministic seed), confirming the public/hidden re-run contract.
Final diff , what the agent changed

No file changes, the agent left the workspace untouched.

Verifier output , the proof behind the reward
tests/test.sh
# SyncVals normalized verifier summary
# task: lending-club-lgd-bias-correction-r
# attempt: 4  status: completed  raw_score: 0.0
# reward rule: binary: score 0.0 != 1.0
# => reward = 0.0  (FAIL)
#
# Note: these tasks score via an external hidden grader; no pytest/verifier
# block is embedded in the agent transcript. The block below is the last
# sizable tool-output captured in the run (supporting evidence).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
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…[truncated]

Reproduce this trial: git checkout 2f94510 && PYTHONPATH=src python3 scripts/build_site.py , then open trial/trial_254d16bb02724005. Re-running the agent live requires EVAL_PLATFORM_ENABLE_OAUTH_SMOKE=1 and is non-deterministic.

Trial trial_254d16bb02724005 · verifier authoritative; classifier explanatory.