SyncValsverifier → artifact → classifier → verdict
SyncVals · Trajectory

lending-club-lgd-bias-correction-r

claude-code claude-opus-4-8 ✓ resolved GOOD_SUCCESS ↑ View task
Solved from the instruction alone, tests/ and solution/ were withheld from the agent's workspace and restored only for grading.
Reward = tests/test.sh exit code (0 → resolved); the classification below is post-hoc and cannot change it.
Classification , post-hoc; cannot change the reward
GOOD_SUCCESSLegitimate solve, implements the asked-for behavior; tests verify real functionality.
SubtypeLegitimate Solution
EvidenceTest output confirms 'PASS' with reward=1.0. Agent trajectory shows: (1) correct naive_lgd=0.677 (mean over all 6000 rows), (2) correct corrected_lgd=0.565 (mean over 3185 resolved-only rows), (3) bootstrap CI [0.5577, 0.5727] with B=1000 resamples and seed 20260606 placed immediately before loop, (4) lgd_by_grade/lgd_by_purpose correctly computed on resolved subset only, (5) lgd_panel.csv with 42 rows, all columns present (grade,purpose,n_total,n_resolved,naive_lgd,corrected_lgd), zero NaNs for corrected_lgd where n_resolved>0, (6) bias_assessment with naive_minus_corrected=0.112 and direction='materially_overestimates' (correct since 0.112 > 0.05 threshold), (7) Two PNGs 840×540 both > 200×150 with actual plots (not blank, pixel std >> 5.0), (8) plot_contract.json structure correct: {\"figures\": [array with name/series objects]}, (9) insights.md 757 bytes with numeric values and direction language, (10) grep confirms zero forbidden functions (file.copy, system, saveRDS, etc.), (11) deterministic seed check passes (CI identical across two runs).
Root causeAgent correctly understood the LGD bias-correction specification, identified the draft's errors (wrong bootstrap size, wrong subsetting, incorrect bias direction logic), and implemented a complete solution that passes all verifier checks: proper statistical calculations on resolved-only subsets, deterministic seed placement, correct JSON/CSV output structures, real visualizations, and strict adherence to forbidden-function constraints.
RecommendationN/A - task is fine
Trajectory
Tool-by-tool agent trajectory
40 tool calls · 3 tool types · 40 steps
Hi , I want a defensible portfolio Loss Given Default (LGD) read on this Lending Club defaulted-loans workout panel. Source CSV at `/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv`; schema at `/workspace/app/dataset_manifest.json`. A previous draft at `/workspace/analysis.R` runs but its specification is wrong. Audit and finish. ## Entry point `Rscript /workspace/analysis.R` reading `LGD_PATH` and writing to `LGD_OUTPUT_DIR`. Grader runs the script twice (public + hidden). ## Output contract Into `LGD_OUTPUT_DIR`: - **`metrics.json`** , Sections: - `data_summary`: n_total, n_resolved, n_censored, share_resolved. - `naive_lgd`: `{"value": <float>}` (or bare scalar) , mean of `1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default` over **all** rows (the biased baseline). - `corrected_lgd`: `{"value": <float>}` (or bare scalar) , same mean but **restricted to is_resolved == 1**. - `bootstrap_ci`: `{"ci_low": <float>, "ci_high": <float>}` , 95% CI for `corrected_lgd` from a paired bootstrap (B = 1000) over resolved loans only. - `lgd_by_grade`: corrected LGD per grade A-G. - `lgd_by_purpose`: corrected LGD per purpose. - `bias_assessment`: keys `naive_minus_corrected` and `direction` ∈ `"materially_underestimates"`, `"close"`, `"materially_overestimates"`. - **`lgd_panel.csv`** , columns `grade, purpose, n_total, n_resolved, naive_lgd, corrected_lgd` (order not enforced). - **`insights.md`** , short paragraph naming the direction and magnitude. - **`plot_contract.json`** , `{"figures": [{"name": "fig1_lgd_by_grade", "series": [...]}, {"name": "fig2_naive_vs_corrected", "series": [...]}]}`. `figures` must be a JSON **array** of objects; each object must have a `"name"` string key matching the PNG filename (without `.png`) and a non-empty `"series"` list. - Two PNGs ≥ 200 × 150: - `fig1_lgd_by_grade.png` , corrected LGD by grade. - `fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png` , paired bars. ## Specification - **Naive LGD**: `mean(1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default)` over the full dataset. Document this as biased. - **Corrected LGD**: same mean **only over `is_resolved == 1`** rows. - **Bootstrap CI**: 1000 resamples (with replacement) of the resolved rows; record the mean LGD per resample; report 2.5% / 97.5% percentile bounds. Use `set.seed(20260606)` immediately before the bootstrap loop. - **Per grade / per purpose**: use the corrected (resolved-only) population. - **`corrected_lgd` in the panel**: for every `grade × purpose` group that has at least one resolved loan (`n_resolved > 0`), `corrected_lgd` must be the resolved-only mean , **not NaN**. - **Direction** (relative to corrected): - `"materially_underestimates"` if `naive_lgd < corrected_lgd - 0.05`; - `"materially_overestimates"` if `naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05`; - `"close"` otherwise. ## Constraints `analysis.R` must not use: - **Filesystem manipulation**: `file.copy`, `file.rename`, `file.link`, `file.symlink`, `file.append` - **Shell / subprocess dispatch**: `system()`, `system2()`, `shell()`, `pipe()` - **Binary I/O**: `saveRDS()`, `writeBin()`, `as.raw()`, `sink()`, `readRDS()`, `readBin()`, `load()` Preferred write path: `jsonlite::write_json` for `metrics.json`; `readr::write_csv` or `write.csv` for `lgd_panel.csv`; `writeLines`, `cat`, or any text writer for `insights.md`; `ggsave` / `png` for plots.
Let me start by exploring the workspace to understand the current state of the analysis.
bash
ls -la /workspace/app/ /workspace/
output
/workspace/:
total 19
drwxrws---  4 h2tagent h2tagent 4096 Jun  1 08:53 .
drwxr-xr-x 28 root     root     4096 Jun  1 09:33 ..
-rw-rw----  1 h2tagent h2tagent 2821 Jun  1 08:20 analysis.R
drwxrws---  2 h2tagent h2tagent 4096 Jun  1 08:53 app
drwxrws---  2 h2tagent h2tagent 4096 Jun  1 08:53 output

/workspace/app/:
total 424
drwxrws--- 2 h2tagent h2tagent   4096 Jun  1 08:53 .
drwxrws--- 4 h2tagent h2tagent   4096 Jun  1 08:53 ..
-rw-rw---- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   1725 Jun  1 08:20 dataset_manifest.json
-rw-rw---- 1 h2tagent h2tagent 423783 Jun  1 08:20 lgd_workouts_source.csv
bash
cat /workspace/app/dataset_manifest.json
output
{
  "dataset_name": "Defaulted-loan workout panel for Loss Given Default modelling",
  "source": "Calibrated to Lending Club historical loan-level disclosures of defaulted accounts and their post-default workout ledger (https://www.lendingclub.com/info/statistics.action , historical bulk files).",
  "license": "Synthetic but matches the Lending Club workout schema for grading.",
  "columns": {
    "loan_id": "Anonymous loan identifier.",
    "grade": "Lending Club grade A-G assigned at origination.",
    "purpose": "Borrower-stated loan purpose.",
    "home_ownership": "RENT / OWN / MORTGAGE.",
    "principal_at_default": "Outstanding principal at the moment of default (USD).",
    "default_month": "Months from origination to default.",
    "workout_months_observed": "Months of post-default observation in the panel.",
    "time_to_resolution": "Months from default to terminal resolution (recovery curve flat-lines).",
    "is_resolved": "1 if workout_months_observed >= time_to_resolution; else 0 (right-censored workout).",
    "recovered_amount": "Cumulative dollars recovered as of the as-of date (USD).",
    "annual_inc": "Borrower annual income at origination."
  },
  "definitions": {
    "lgd": "LGD = 1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default , only valid when is_resolved == 1.",
    "censoring": "Rows with is_resolved == 0 are right-censored: their LGD is incompletely observed. Censored rows have partial recovery, so recovered_amount understates the true terminal recovery , a naive mean of recovered/principal is biased downward, and therefore LGD = 1 - recovered/principal is biased upward (naive overestimates true LGD). Restrict to resolved workouts or model the cure mechanism."
  }
}
bash
cat /workspace/analysis.R
output
#!/usr/bin/env Rscript
# LGD analysis , DRAFT. Audit and finish.
suppressPackageStartupMessages({
  library(readr); library(dplyr); library(tidyr); library(jsonlite); library(ggplot2)
})

LGD_PATH <- Sys.getenv("LGD_PATH", "/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv")
OUT <- Sys.getenv("LGD_OUTPUT_DIR", "/workspace/output")
dir.create(OUT, showWarnings = FALSE, recursive = TRUE)

df <- read_csv(LGD_PATH, show_col_types = FALSE)

# Naive LGD over all rows (this is the biased baseline)
df <- df %>% mutate(observed_lgd = 1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default)
naive_lgd <- mean(df$observed_lgd)

# "corrected" , but the draft uses ALL rows again, just trimming outliers
corrected_lgd <- mean(df$observed_lgd[df$observed_lgd > 0.0 & df$observed_lgd < 1.0])

# bootstrap on the wrong (full) dataset , and only 200 reps
set.seed(20260606)
boot <- replicate(200, mean(sample(df$observed_lgd, replace = TRUE)))
ci_lo <- quantile(boot, 0.025); ci_hi <- quantile(boot, 0.975)

bg <- df %>% group_by(grade) %>% summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")
bp <- df %>% group_by(purpose) %>% summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")

panel <- df %>% group_by(grade, purpose) %>%
  summarise(n_total = n(), n_resolved = sum(is_resolved),
            naive_lgd = mean(observed_lgd),
            corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")
write_csv(panel, file.path(OUT, "lgd_panel.csv"))

bias_diff <- naive_lgd - corrected_lgd
direction <- if (abs(bias_diff) < 0.05) "close" else if (bias_diff > 0) "materially_overestimates" else "materially_underestimates"

metrics <- list(
  data_summary = list(n_total = nrow(df), n_resolved = sum(df$is_resolved),
                     n_censored = nrow(df) - sum(df$is_resolved),
                     share_resolved = mean(df$is_resolved)),
  naive_lgd = list(value = naive_lgd),
  corrected_lgd = list(value = corrected_lgd),
  bootstrap_ci = list(ci_low = unname(ci_lo), ci_high = unname(ci_hi)),
  lgd_by_grade = setNames(as.list(bg$corrected_lgd), bg$grade),
  lgd_by_purpose = setNames(as.list(bp$corrected_lgd), bp$purpose),
  bias_assessment = list(naive_minus_corrected = bias_diff, direction = direction)
)
write_json(metrics, file.path(OUT, "metrics.json"), auto_unbox = TRUE,
           digits = 6, pretty = TRUE)

cat(paste0("Naive LGD: ", round(naive_lgd, 3),
           "\nCorrected: ", round(corrected_lgd, 3),
           "\nDirection: ", direction, "\n"),
    file = file.path(OUT, "insights.md"))
write_json(list(figures = list()), file.path(OUT, "plot_contract.json"),
           auto_unbox = TRUE, pretty = TRUE)
png(file.path(OUT, "fig1_lgd_by_grade.png"), width = 600, height = 400); plot.new(); dev.off()
png(file.path(OUT, "fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png"), width = 600, height = 400); plot.new(); dev.off()
bash
head -3 /workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv && echo "---" && wc -l /workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv
output
loan_id,grade,purpose,home_ownership,principal_at_default,default_month,workout_months_observed,time_to_resolution,is_resolved,recovered_amount,annual_inc
LC0000000,C,small_business,MORTGAGE,9248.9,12,16,8,1,2351.97,37618.14
LC0000001,A,debt_consolidation,RENT,14442.6,10,25,15,1,7783.99,135186.3
---
6001 /workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv
bash
Rscript -e '
df <- readr::read_csv("/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv", show_col_types=FALSE)
cat("Rows:", nrow(df), "\n")
cat("Resolved:", sum(df$is_resolved), "\n")
cat("Censored:", sum(df$is_resolved==0), "\n")
cat("Grades:", paste(sort(unique(df$grade)), collapse=","), "\n")
cat("Purposes:", paste(sort(unique(df$purpose)), collapse=","), "\n")
df$lgd <- 1 - df$recovered_amount/df$principal_at_default
cat("Naive (all rows) LGD:", mean(df$lgd), "\n")
cat("Corrected (resolved only) LGD:", mean(df$lgd[df$is_resolved==1]), "\n")
'
output
Rows: 6000 
Resolved: 3185 
Censored: 2815 
Grades: A,B,C,D,E,F,G 
Purposes: credit_card,debt_consolidation,home_improvement,major_purchase,other,small_business 
Naive (all rows) LGD: 0.677057 
Corrected (resolved only) LGD: 0.5651259
Good. Now I understand the data. The naive LGD (0.677) is higher than the corrected LGD (0.565), so naive MATERIALLY OVERESTIMATES (difference is 0.112 which is > 0.05). Let me check: `direction` based on the spec: - `"materially_underestimates"` if `naive_lgd < corrected_lgd - 0.05` - `"materially_overestimates"` if `naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05` - `"close"` otherwise naive_lgd = 0.677, corrected_lgd = 0.565 naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05 => 0.677 > 0.615 => TRUE So direction is "materially_overestimates". Now I'll rewrite the analysis.R. Let me plan: 1. Read data 2. Compute naive_lgd = mean(1 - rec/princ) over ALL rows 3. Compute corrected_lgd = mean over is_resolved==1 only 4. Bootstrap CI with set.seed(20260606) right before loop, B=1000, over resolved rows only 5. lgd_by_grade: corrected (resolved-only) per grade 6. lgd_by_purpose: corrected (resolved-only) per purpose 7. Panel: grade x purpose, n_total, n_resolved, naive_lgd (over all in group), corrected_lgd (over resolved in group; not NaN when n_resolved > 0) 8. bias_assessment 9. plot_contract.json with proper structure 10. Two actual plots Let me code this carefully. The spec asks for `bias_assessment`: - `naive_minus_corrected` (the value) - `direction` (the label) For the panel's `corrected_lgd`: "for every `grade × purpose` group that has at least one resolved loan (`n_resolved > 0`), `corrected_lgd` must be the resolved-only mean , **not NaN**." This suggests when n_resolved == 0, it can be NaN/NA; otherwise it's the mean over resolved rows in the group. For plot_contract.json: `{"figures": [{"name": "fig1_lgd_by_grade", "series": [...]}, ...]}`. Each figure needs a `name` and non-empty `series` list. Let me write the full script:
Now I understand the draft's issues. Let me write the corrected analysis.
str_replace_based_edit_tool
command: create
path: /workspace/analysis.R
file_text: #!/usr/bin/env Rscript
# LGD analysis , corrected version.
# Reads the defaulted-loans workout panel, computes the biased naive LGD
# (mean over ALL rows) vs. the corrected LGD (mean restricted to
# is_resolved == 1), bootstrap CI over resolved loans, grade/purpose
# breakdowns on the resolved subset, and writes metrics + plots.
suppressPackageStartupMessages({
  library(readr)
  library(dplyr)
  library(tidyr)
  library(jsonlite)
  library(ggplot2)
})

LGD_PATH <- Sys.getenv("LGD_PATH", "/workspace/app/lgd_workouts_source.csv")
OUT <- Sys.getenv("LGD_OUTPUT_DIR", "/workspace/output")
dir.create(OUT, showWarnings = FALSE, recursive = TRUE)

df <- readr::read_csv(LGD_PATH, show_col_types = FALSE)

# Per-row observed LGD. For censored rows (is_resolved == 0), recovered_amount
# understates terminal recovery, so 1 - rec/princ is biased UPWARD.
df <- dplyr::mutate(df, observed_lgd = 1 - recovered_amount / principal_at_default)

resolved <- dplyr::filter(df, is_resolved == 1)

# ---- headline metrics -------------------------------------------------------
naive_lgd     <- mean(df$observed_lgd)              # biased baseline: ALL rows
corrected_lgd <- mean(resolved$observed_lgd)        # unbiased: resolved only

# ---- paired bootstrap CI over resolved loans (B = 1000) ---------------------
B <- 1000
resolved_lgd <- resolved$observed_lgd
n_res <- length(resolved_lgd)
boot_means <- numeric(B)
set.seed(20260606)
for (b in seq_len(B)) {
  boot_means[b] <- mean(resolved_lgd[sample.int(n_res, n_res, replace = TRUE)])
}
ci_lo <- unname(quantile(boot_means, 0.025))
ci_hi <- unname(quantile(boot_means, 0.975))

# ---- corrected LGD by grade / purpose (resolved only) -----------------------
bg <- resolved %>%
  dplyr::group_by(grade) %>%
  dplyr::summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop") %>%
  dplyr::arrange(grade)

bp <- resolved %>%
  dplyr::group_by(purpose) %>%
  dplyr::summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop") %>%
  dplyr::arrange(purpose)

# ---- grade x purpose panel --------------------------------------------------
totals <- df %>%
  dplyr::group_by(grade, purpose) %>%
  dplyr::summarise(
    n_total    = dplyr::n(),
    n_resolved = sum(is_resolved),
    naive_lgd  = mean(observed_lgd),
    .groups    = "drop"
  )

resolved_panel <- resolved %>%
  dplyr::group_by(grade, purpose) %>%
  dplyr::summarise(corrected_lgd = mean(observed_lgd), .groups = "drop")

panel <- totals %>%
  dplyr::left_join(resolved_panel, by = c("grade", "purpose")) %>%
  dplyr::arrange(grade, purpose)

readr::write_csv(panel, file.path(OUT, "lgd_panel.csv"))

# ---- bias assessment --------------------------------------------------------
bias_diff <- naive_lgd - corrected_lgd
direction <- if (naive_lgd < corrected_lgd - 0.05) {
  "materially_underestimates"
} else if (naive_lgd > corrected_lgd + 0.05) {
  "materially_overestimates"
} else {
  "close"
}

# ---- metrics.json -----------------------------------------------------------
metrics <- list(
  data_summary = list(
    n_total        = nrow(df),
    n_resolved     = sum(df$is_resolved),
    n_censored     = nrow(df) - sum(df$is_resolved),
    share_resolved = mean(df$is_resolved)
  ),
  naive_lgd     = list(value = naive_lgd),
  corrected_lgd = list(value = corrected_lgd),
  bootstrap_ci  = list(ci_low = ci_lo, ci_high = ci_hi),
  lgd_by_grade  = setNames(as.list(bg$corrected_lgd), bg$grade),
  lgd_by_purpose = setNames(as.list(bp$corrected_lgd), bp$purpose),
  bias_assessment = list(
    naive_minus_corrected = bias_diff,
    direction             = direction
  )
)
jsonlite::write_json(
  metrics, file.path(OUT, "metrics.json"),
  auto_unbox = TRUE, digits = 8, pretty = TRUE, na = "null"
)

# ---- insights.md ------------------------------------------------------------
insight <- sprintf(paste0(
  "# LGD Read , Lending Club Defaulted Loans Workout Panel\n\n",
  "The naive LGD of %.3f (mean of 1 - recovered
…[truncated]
output
Existing file was successfully overwritten at /workspace/analysis.R
bash
cd /workspace && rm -rf output && mkdir -p output && Rscript analysis.R
output
Naive LGD: 0.6771
Corrected: 0.5651
CI95: [0.5577, 0.5727]
Direction: materially_overestimates
Now let me verify all outputs are compliant:
bash
ls -la /workspace/output/ && echo "---metrics.json---" && cat /workspace/output/metrics.json
output
total 60
drwxr-sr-x 2 h2tagent h2tagent  4096 Jun  1 09:34 .
drwxrws--- 4 h2tagent h2tagent  4096 Jun  1 09:34 ..
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent 23497 Jun  1 09:34 fig1_lgd_by_grade.png
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent 22395 Jun  1 09:34 fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   757 Jun  1 09:34 insights.md
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent  2592 Jun  1 09:34 lgd_panel.csv
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent   807 Jun  1 09:34 metrics.json
-rw-r--r-- 1 h2tagent h2tagent  1130 Jun  1 09:34 plot_contract.json
---metrics.json---
{
  "data_summary": {
    "n_total": 6000,
    "n_resolved": 3185,
    "n_censored": 2815,
    "share_resolved": 0.53083333
  },
  "naive_lgd": {
    "value": 0.677057
  },
  "corrected_lgd": {
    "value": 0.56512588
  },
  "bootstrap_ci": {
    "ci_low": 0.55767503,
    "ci_high": 0.57265928
  },
  "lgd_by_grade": {
    "A": 0.43529755,
    "B": 0.49919225,
    "C": 0.57150847,
    "D": 0.65262141,
    "E": 0.71929622,
    "F": 0.79746682,
    "G": 0.84954799
  },
  "lgd_by_purpose": {
    "credit_card": 0.5911141,
    "debt_consolidation": 0.54887667,
    "home_improvement": 0.54207074,
    "major_purchase": 0.61012939,
    "other": 0.54548081,
    "small_business": 0.6255756
  },
  "bias_assessment": {
    "naive_minus_corrected": 0.11193112,
    "direction": "materially_overestimates"
  }
}
bash
head -5 /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv
echo "---"
tail -5 /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv
echo "---"
wc -l /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv
echo "---"
Rscript -e '
p <- readr::read_csv("/workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv", show_col_types=FALSE)
cat("cols:", paste(names(p), collapse=","), "\n")
cat("rows:", nrow(p), "\n")
cat("rows with n_resolved>0 AND is.na(corrected_lgd):", sum(p$n_resolved>0 & is.na(p$corrected_lgd)), "\n")
cat("rows with n_resolved==0:", sum(p$n_resolved==0), "\n")
cat("groups total:", nrow(p), "min n_total:", min(p$n_total), "\n")
'
output
grade,purpose,n_total,n_resolved,naive_lgd,corrected_lgd
A,credit_card,219,136,0.5607065958509241,0.45012049865070586
A,debt_consolidation,564,297,0.5702761415442725,0.4202599413316665
A,home_improvement,114,64,0.5292722852167128,0.4073998487935503
A,major_purchase,67,35,0.6368190733531681,0.5021729573367807
---
G,debt_consolidation,56,32,0.8736372909633625,0.8295847885354636
G,home_improvement,18,8,0.8599317504304652,0.8133579562599889
G,major_purchase,9,6,0.8694264325104171,0.8167843285444563
G,other,11,7,0.871591124141334,0.8562888208527432
G,small_business,11,4,0.98019042346479,0.9772421282080737
---
43 /workspace/output/lgd_panel.csv
---
cols: grade,purpose,n_total,n_resolved,naive_lgd,corrected_lgd 
rows: 42 
rows with n_resolved>0 AND is.na(corrected_lgd): 0 
rows with n_resolved==0: 0 
groups total: 42 min n_total: 9
All 42 grade×purpose groups (7×6) have n_resolved > 0, so no NaNs. Check plot_contract & insights:
bash
cat /workspace/output/plot_contract.json
echo "---INSIGHTS---"
cat /workspace/output/insights.md
output
{
  "figures": [
    {
      "name": "fig1_lgd_by_grade",
      "title": "Corrected LGD by Grade",
      "type": "bar",
      "x": "grade",
      "y": "corrected_lgd",
      "series": [
        {
          "grade": "A",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.43529755
        },
        {
          "grade": "B",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.49919225
        },
        {
          "grade": "C",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.57150847
        },
        {
          "grade": "D",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.65262141
        },
        {
          "grade": "E",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.71929622
        },
        {
          "grade": "F",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.79746682
        },
        {
          "grade": "G",
          "corrected_lgd": 0.84954799
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "fig2_naive_vs_corrected",
      "title": "Naive vs Corrected LGD",
      "type": "bar",
      "x": "estimate",
      "y": "lgd",
      "series": [
        {
          "estimate": "naive",
          "lgd": 0.677057
        },
        {
          "estimate": "corrected",
          "lgd": 0.56512588
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}
---INSIGHTS---
# LGD Read , Lending Club Defaulted Loans Workout Panel

The naive LGD of 0.677 (mean of 1 - recovered/principal over all 6000 rows) **materially_overestimates** the corrected LGD of 0.565 (resolved workouts only, n = 3185). The difference naive_minus_corrected = +0.112 is driven by the 2815 right-censored loans whose recoveries are incomplete: their partial `recovered_amount` understates terminal recovery, so `1 - recovered/principal` is biased **upward** on the censored subset and pulls the pooled mean away from the true LGD. A 95% paired bootstrap CI over the resolved population (B = 1000) places corrected LGD in [0.558, 0.573]. Recommended portfolio read: use the corrected value, 0.565, and stratify by grade/purpose per the attached panel.
bash
python3 -c "
from PIL import Image
for f in ['fig1_lgd_by_grade','fig2_naive_vs_corrected']:
    im = Image.open(f'/workspace/output/{f}.png')
    print(f, im.size)
"
output
fig1_lgd_by_grade (840, 540)
fig2_naive_vs_corrected (840, 540)
Both PNGs well above 200×150. Now verify constraint compliance (no forbidden functions):
bash
grep -nE 'file\.(copy|rename|link|symlink|append)|system\(|system2\(|shell\(|pipe\(|saveRDS|readRDS|writeBin|readBin|as\.raw|sink\(|^load\(|[^.]load\(' /workspace/analysis.R || echo "NO FORBIDDEN CALLS"
output
NO FORBIDDEN CALLS
Clean. Let me also verify re-runs are deterministic (seed is set):
bash
cd /workspace && rm -rf output && mkdir output && Rscript analysis.R 2>&1 | tail -4
echo "--- first run CI ---"
python3 -c "import json; d=json.load(open('/workspace/output/metrics.json')); print(d['bootstrap_ci'])"
rm -rf output && mkdir output && Rscript analysis.R > /dev/null 2>&1
echo "--- second run CI (should match) ---"
python3 -c "import json; d=json.load(open('/workspace/output/metrics.json')); print(d['bootstrap_ci'])"
output
Naive LGD: 0.6771
Corrected: 0.5651
CI95: [0.5577, 0.5727]
Direction: materially_overestimates
--- first run CI ---
{'ci_low': 0.55767503, 'ci_high': 0.57265928}
--- second run CI (should match) ---
{'ci_low': 0.55767503, 'ci_high': 0.57265928}
Deterministic. Let me view the figures to confirm they look proper:
str_replace_based_edit_tool
command: view
path: /workspace/output/fig1_lgd_by_grade.png
output
<output_image>
…[truncated]
str_replace_based_edit_tool
command: view
path: /workspace/output/fig2_naive_vs_corrected.png
output
<output_image>
…[truncated]
Both plots render correctly with the intended content (axis labels, titles and value labels are present but mostly render in light-on-dark because my terminal preview inverts them , the PNG itself is a normal white-background ggplot). Final summary of what the corrected `analysis.R` does: 1. **Reads** `LGD_PATH` → computes per-row `observed_lgd = 1 - recovered/principal`. 2. **`naive_lgd`** = mean over **all 6000** rows = **0.677** (biased baseline). 3. **`corrected_lgd`** = mean over **`is_resolved == 1`** rows (n = 3185) = **0.565**. 4. **Bootstrap CI**: `set.seed(20260606)` directly before a loop of **B = 1000** paired resamples of the *resolved* vector; 2.5%/97.5% percentiles → **[0.558, 0.573]**. 5. **`lgd_by_grade`** / **`lgd_by_purpose`** are computed on the resolved subset, with grades A (0.435) rising monotonically to G (0.850). 6. **Panel** (`lgd_panel.csv`) has `grade, purpose, n_total, n_resolved, naive_lgd, corrected_lgd` , 42 rows; every row has `n_resolved > 0` so `corrected_lgd` is never NaN. 7. **`bias_assessment`**: `naive − corrected = +0.112` → `"materially_overestimates"` (> 0.05 threshold). 8. **`plot_contract.json`** is an object with `figures` as an array of `{name, series, …}`; the `name`s match the two PNGs. 9. Two real ggplot PNGs (840×540) are written. 10. No forbidden functions used; `set.seed` is placed immediately before the bootstrap loop; re-runs produce identical CIs.
Final diff , what the agent changed

No file changes, the agent left the workspace untouched.

Verifier output , the proof behind the reward
tests/test.sh
# SyncVals normalized verifier summary
# task: lending-club-lgd-bias-correction-r
# attempt: 2  status: completed  raw_score: 1.0
# reward rule: binary: score 1.0 == 1.0
# => reward = 1.0  (PASS)
#
# Note: these tasks score via an external hidden grader; no pytest/verifier
# block is embedded in the agent transcript. The block below is the last
# sizable tool-output captured in the run (supporting evidence).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
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…[truncated]

Reproduce this trial: git checkout 2f94510 && PYTHONPATH=src python3 scripts/build_site.py , then open trial/trial_3ea1300a3b8e4550. Re-running the agent live requires EVAL_PLATFORM_ENABLE_OAUTH_SMOKE=1 and is non-deterministic.

Trial trial_3ea1300a3b8e4550 · verifier authoritative; classifier explanatory.